Nadal vs. Murray: Shot tolerance at it's finest

Indian Wells, ATP 1000 event (first of the year)

Seeds:

1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Murray
5. Davydenko - pulled out before the tournament started
6. Del Potro
7. Roddick
8. Simon -
9. Monfils -
10. Verdasco
11. Tsonga -
12. Ferrer
13. Blake -
14. Nalbandian
15. Robredo
16. Wawrinka

My Pick: Nadal

Underdog Pick: Robredo

Murray d. Federer 6-3 4-6 6-1

Well I'm quite disappointed in Federer. I know this isn't a Grand Slam (even though the field was equally tough) but the fact that he's lost to Murray four times in a row is shocking. I realize that similar to Nadal, this is a bad matchup in playing styles for Roger... but he's got the shots to get it done, and I really feel he's failing mentally. Not to take anything away from Murray, who is a great player and all... but Federer has to improve his shot tolerance. Federer loves making great shots out of great shots, and nobody in the world can do it nearly as well as he can. The problem comes when someone hits good deep smart shots to you repeatedly, and he never gets the right ball to hit a great shot on... to put it quite simply, Federer gets bored. Once that happens, he starts going for too much off the wrong ball and the prestine game that we're so used to seeing falls into a mess of errors. IF Federer were to play Murray with the patience to wait until he gets the right ball to attack, even if that comes after a 25 ball rally... he would win. Perhaps he doesn't know if he is fit enough? Back injury still there and worrying him? who knows.

Nadal d. Roddick 6-4 7-6(4)

Well played match by both guys. The lefty forehand over to Roddicks backhand is a recipe for a loss, and Roddicks only way to avoid a sound beating was to be a bit more aggressive than normal on the serve and forehand (which in my opinion he should always be, but I digress). He was, it worked... almost. In the second set Nadal was up 5-3 serving for it when Roddick broke back and took it to a breaker. It's hard to accuse Roddick of putting less than 100% effort in, and he used sound strategy unlike Fed... he just wasn't good enough.

The Final!

Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray

Head to Head: Played 7 times, Rafa won the first 5, Murray won the last 2. (Nadal got injured during the Rotterdam finals though, so decide for yourself if that counts)

Matchup: This is going to be a VERY exciting mental battle. Much of what I was talking about with the Federer/Murray match is going to hold true. Who has the better shot tolerance? If you read my blog much you know that I simply can't pick Murray here for more reasons than just talent. This is going to be an absolutely grueling match, more than likely a 3 setter. The only thing that I can guarantee is that Nadal won't quit.

Score prediction: I usually don't like to predict scores because it's aweful hard to know the variables involved unless you're there and around both of the players etc. before the match starts... which I'm not. That being said, I'll try.

Nadal d. Murray 4-6 7-6(4) 6-2

this is just a prediction, the match is later today

If you read this in time, feel free to throw your prediction down as well!